Epistemic decision theory integrates formal models of rational belief with the processes of decision‐making under uncertainty. It addresses how agents should revise their credences in light of new and ...

Do you use these mental models for efficient decision-making in your daily life? If not, you’re missing out on the opportunity to make more thoughtful and informed choices. Mental models are cognitive ...

Inside every major decision nests another smaller decision: When do you give up on information gathering and decide you have enough data to make a choice? Spend too long probing your options and you ...

This comprehensive course bridges the gap between foundational statistical reasoning and practical applications related to business and engineering decision-making. Throughout the course, we’ll ...

Discover the base rate fallacy's impact on investing decisions. Learn how overlooking this cognitive bias can lead to financial misjudgments and market misconceptions.

Physicians frequently overestimate the probability that a diagnosis or intervention would be helpful. Are they overly optimistic? Are the cynical correct in assuming that optimism hides a conflict of ...

Discover how multivariate models use multiple variables for investment forecasting, risk analysis, and decision-making in ...

explores risk management lessons from everyday games, showing how strategy, probability, and smart decisions drive business ...